Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever ‘extreme fear’ period – Vijay Gir
November 15, 2024
Analysis

Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever ‘extreme fear’ period

Crypto Live India

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Bitcoin (BTC) may have avoided fresh losses since falling to $17,600 last month, but the sentiment is on the floor.

Now, one classic crypto market mood gauge is showing just how long and hard the average investor has suffered.

70 days of “extreme fear”

While crypto market sentiment was already “comparable to funeral” before the start of 2022, the subsequent price drawdown in Bitcoin and altcoins produced cold feet like never before.

This has now been quantified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool that takes multiple sources into account to create an overall score of how the markets are feeling. 

As of July 15, Fear & Greed has spent 70 days in its lowest bracket — “extreme fear” — marking of a new bearish record.

The Index consists of five such brackets, with the others being “fear,” “neutral,” “greed” and “extreme greed.”

A score below 25/100 on its normalized scare corresponds to “extreme greed,” and it is that score zone that has characterized the past two months. The last time that the market was more optimistic than “extreme fear” was on May 5 — days before the Terra (LUNA) — now called Terra Classic (LUNC) — debacle.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Commenting on the data, Philip Swift, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, noted that this “extreme fear” period is longer than even those surrounding the 2018 Bitcoin bear market and March 2020 cross-market crash.

2022, despite its bearish overtones, has nonetheless not been without its exuberant phases. The last time that the Index was in its “greed” or “extreme greed” zone — which tends to suggest an overheated market — was in March this year.

Research eyes “sign of potential breakout”

Looking to what could aid Bitcoin and altcoins’ recovery, research firm Santiment, meanwhile, believes that crypto correlation to traditional assets must come down.

Related: Bitcoin whales still ‘hibernating’ as BTC price nears $21K

While already dropping, BTC must continue to strike out on its own and avoid the knee-jerk reaction to central bank monetary tightening over inflation.

“Crypto grows at its most rapid pace when having very little correlation with equities,” it argued in a Twitter post on July 14.

“After yesterday’s CPI report, $BTC & alts have been recovering while the SP500 & Gold drop. If they stay uncorrelated, it’s a good sign of a potential breakout.”

Crypto market cap comparison chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter

A more striking inverse correlation to eye has been between crypto and the U.S. dollar, currently near twenty-year highs against a basket of trading partner currencies.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to trade at around 108 after hitting multiple peaks throughout the week, data from TradingView shows.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.