Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal suggests Bitcoin’s ‘low is in’

Raoul Pal, the founder and CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, believes the crypto market has “found its bottom” and that new upside momentum is likely.

The Real Vision CEO made his comments during an interview with Layah Heilpurn, with his outlook coming at a time Bitcoin and the rest of crypto is looking to bounce after a bout of fresh declines over the past few days.

Bitcoin, which traded to lows near $39,000 this week, has recovered some of the losses to currently hover near $41,200. The BTC-USD pair is 4% up in the past 24 hours, while the crypto market capitalisation has bounced 3%.

Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), BNB (BNB) XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have all added more than 3% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC) and Avalanche (AVAX) are some of the biggest crypto gainers on the day so far.

Crypto didn’t make a new low

According to Pal, the crypto market has in the past several months been hit by various macro developments. However, no new low has been made since the last bottom in 2021 despite several likely negative triggers.

It’s a scenario that suggests crypto resilience and that that could point to a low already being in, although no one can with certainty predict the market.

“The balance of probabilities is that we made the low last year, we retested the low this year and I think the low is in,” he noted.

He believes crypto’s seen “everything” that could have helped push prices to a new low. That hasn’t happened so far. He told Heilpurn:

“I think we’ve thrown a war, 8.5% inflation, the Fed raising interest rates all at crypto, we’ve thrown the Chinese ban, we’ve thrown so much at it and [yet it]didn’t make a new low. Usually, that’s usually a signal the market has found its bottom.”

A slowing economy could trigger fresh upward action

On fresh catalysts for crypto prices, Pal thinks a slowdown in economic growth would be top of the list. This is a scenario that will trigger buying pressure in assets that “tend to outperform in low growth environments.”

He says that a change in the economic landscape could see “people fear inflation less and start fearing growth more.”According to Pal, this is when long-duration assets (and crypto is one such asset that loves a slowing economy) begin to outperform. 

In the stock market, Cathie Wood’s ARKK is a good example.

Pal also talked about Bitcoin’s four-year cycle narrative, noting that these are likely over given the market’s size today compared to during the early years. The cycle could yet have an impact, but that could be on a smaller scale as further adoption reduces the wild volatility, he added.